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Oscar Picks

Submitted by ryandonovan at 2000-03-23 03:44:32 EST
Rating: 1.17 on 7 ratings (7 reviews) (Review this item) (V)


These are my nostradamic predictions for the Oscars. I'm telling you Who
SHOULD Win and Who WILL Win. There is a difference. The Academy is very
often wrong (Shakespeare in Love, anyone?). And I am always right. Why am
I the one who gets a forum to discuss my picks? I'm no smarter than the
average person, but chances are I'm smarter than you. So listen up. Feel
free to disagree or critique, but you will be wrong.

SHOULD WIN: American Beauty
WILL WIN: American Beauty
I'm always a sucker for family dysfunction (Ordinary People, The Ice
Storm), so I loved American Beauty. However, I can't say I was as
impressed by the dancing bag as everyone else. Symbolism, yeah, whatever.
But the bag will win the Cinematography award outright. Bag
notwithstanding, it deserves Best Picture. This is a unique year, where
even the losers are all pretty good films. None of them are this year's
Babe. Even this year's sappy entry, The Cider House Rules, was pretty damn
good. I'm glad they changed the name to Cider House Rules from the
original working title, "Maybe You Wouldn't Be In This Mess If You Didn't
Spread Like Miracle Whip". Solid performances all the way around,
especially from future Oscar winners Tobey Maguire and Delroy Lindo.
Charlize Theron's character was a fucking whore, but we forgive her because
she's cute; pretty women deserve better treatment than homely women because
beautiful equals superior. The Sixth Sense flat-out rocked, which is why
the Academy won't give it a second glance. I didn't have high hopes for
The Insider, but I thoroughly enjoyed it; Pacino was cool enough, but his
dialogue fell way short of Heat. The Green Mile? Yeah, okay, but it was
no Shawshank, that's for goddam sure.

SHOULD WIN: Denzel Washington
WILL WIN: Denzel Washington
You can talk Kevin Spacey and Russell Crowe all you want, but Washington
gave a career-defining performance. When people recount his top
performances, this will likely head up the list. Kevin Spacey is always
larger than his role, and this was no exception. He deserves high praise,
but in Oscartown you have to lose before you can win. Washington has lost,
but Spacey hasn't. He'll have to wait for future chances at another Oscar.
Don't worry; they'll come, and soon. Russell Crowe was extremely good, but
he essentially did an impersonation (both physically and vocally) of J.T.
Walsh in A Few Good Men. If Walsh hadn't died, director Michael Mann could
have saved some money. This is Crowe's first nomination, so he'll have to
get in line behind Edward Norton. As for the other nominees, Sean Spicoli
is lucky just to be nominated, and Richard Farnsworth is lucky just to be

SHOULD WIN: Hilary Swank
WILL WIN: Hilary Swank
But Janet McTeer would not be a shock. She and Swank are pretty
neck-and-neck, insiders tell me. Swank will win, because she is long
overdue for her work on The Next Karate Kid and Beverly Hills 90201, not to
mention the fact that McTeer is British, and nobody likes a whiny Brit
(especially one with a southern drawl). Julianne Moore does not deserve
the Best Actress Award. In Tinseltown, we only reward attractive people,
and we shun people who are unattractive because they are inferior. If you
argue that Julianne Moore is attractive, it simply means that you are d
emented; just because YOU find her attractive does not make it so. Rather,
you have a fetish for freckly, pasty-white, couch-assed women. And you
should seek help. You suffer from the same affliction as the people who
dig Lili Taylor, Alanis Morissette, and Tori Spelling.

SHOULD WIN: Delroy Lindo (but he's not nominated, so Jude Law)
WILL WIN: Tom Cruise
The top acting in Cider House Sluts did not in fact come from Supporting
nominee Michael "Maybe People Will Think My British Accent is New England
Maine" Caine, even though Caine put forth his best work since Steven
Segal's On Deadly Ground (although it came nowhere close to his brilliant
work in Dirty Rotten Scoundrels). The best acting in the film came from
Delroy Lindo, who outshone his co-stars, just as he did in Ransom, Soul of
the Game, Malcolm X, A Life Less Ordinary, Get Shorty, and dare I say it,
Feeling Minnesota. Of course, he got no nomination. Why? Because the
Academy discriminates. They always overlook the guy that looks like Scooby
Doo. Tom Cruise sucks, but like Denzel Washington, he has been nominated
and lost, so he will beat out a more-deserving Jude Law. In addition,
Cruise cried AND smiled, a real stretch for him. Plus Law has the whole
British Backlash thing working against him.

SHOULD WIN: Catherine Keener
WILL WIN: Angelina Jolie
For me, it was pretty close between Keener and Chloe Sevigny, but Keener
wins out because she makes a conventional role unconventional. I was
somehow infatuated with Toni Collette in the Sixth Sense; I have a thing
for cheap and sleazy Philadelphia single moms (that whole dementia thing I
mentioned earlier). That won't get an Oscar vote from me, though. As for
the Academy, Angelina Jolie will take the prize, but nobody will know why.
It will boil down to her over-rated, collagen-infested, chapstick-needing,
Jimmie-Walker lips.

SHOULD WIN: Sam Mendes
WILL WIN: Sam Mendes
In my book, M. Night Shyamalan gives Mendes a run for his money, but
Mendes' dismantling of the American family can't be denied. I'm hoping
that if they give this award to Mendes, they will leave the Best Original
Screenplay for Shamalamadingdong. Even though he won't win, I have a soft
spot for Michael Mann. I really dig Mann's style - I think because I was
weaned at the teat of Miami Vice as a youngster. Mann does well at filming
paranoia (strategic camera angles and zooms), reality (with a
local-cable-access-documentary way of filming), and the complete
environment (everyday factors not central to the story, but that still
affect the main characters). I'm thrilled that Spike Jonze got a
nomination, but for the Academy, it's equivalent to giving spare change to
the homeless. Once every few years, they give a nomination to a director
that is extremely talented and very cutting-edge, like Jonze or John
Singleton (Boyz N the Hood) or Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter), but they
have no intention of letting them win. They only do it to appease the
masses. They figure they're doing the world a huge favor, and it lets them
sleep at night. And Lassie Hailstorm? Oscar nomination or not, I'm still
gonna misspell your name.

SHOULD WIN: The Sixth Sense
WILL WIN: American Beauty
This is easily my favorite category this year; it is really tough to pick.
All very innovative (and it's no mistake that 3 of them are written by the
director, which I'm a big fan of). It's like trying to decide which flavor
Gummy Bear to eat last because they all taste so darn good. American
Beauty will win, which doesn't bother me. The stinger is that it is one of
the only nominees written by someone (Alan Ball) other than the director
(Sam Mendes). The Sixth Sense had such a unified vision, that M. Night
Shyamalan deserves this award for both writing and directing. And
considering the subject matter (ghosts, for crying out loud), the plot and
its details are fairly seamless. Shyamalan lets you read as much or as
little into the symbolism as you want. The kid leaves sweaty handprints on
the cool kitchen table. Was he simply very scared? Or are we seeing a
print of him that has been left behind after he has gone, much in the same
way that he sees the prints, or ghosts, of people after they have gone?
Since most of you people are stupid, Shyamalan allows you to process just
as much as your puny brains can handle.

SHOULD WIN: The Cider House Rules
WILL WIN: The Cider House Rules
The Academy will use this category to spread the love around (see Gods &
Monsters, LA Confidential, and Sling Blade from the previous three years).
Many see Cider House Rules as a close 2nd to American Beauty in the Best
Picture race, so this will be the consolation prize. As for my vote, Cider
House gets it based on the subtleties of the plot. Like how we all have
cider-house rules to abide by yet we cast those aside and in the end choose
to live by our own rules and some people do something and some people wait
and see and all that bullshit. Cider House is not the only good nominee,
so seeing Election get elected would not make me cry.

Finally, there were a couple glaring omissions from some other random
categories. Most notably, Run Lola Run was not nominated for Best Foreign
Film. Ladies and gentlemen of the Academy, just because it's foreign
doesn't mean it has to suck. You're allowed to nominate good films in that
category. Ditto for Best Documentary, which passed on American Movie.
Hysterical, high quality, and it takes place in Milwaukee. It just doesn't
get any better than that.

Review This Item




Submitted by TimeCop at 2005-02-04 16:09:42 EST (#)
Rating: 1

I don't remember the oscars, but I liked American Beauty.

Submitted by tuesdaydelay at 2005-01-24 09:31:50 EST (#)
Rating: 0

The first official post by someone not employed by the makers of Ubersite?

Submitted by zakalwe at 2004-10-02 13:55:24 EDT (#)
Rating: 2

Delroy Lindo is one cool mofo.

Submitted by Circe at 2004-06-22 03:14:54 EDT (#)
Rating: 2

Wandering through old Über is less enlightening than one would hope. I began here: http://www.ubersite.com/m/1 and just.. kept going. I felt the need to leave my name on the first post not written by Bart.

Moving on now...

Submitted by Ingsoc at 2003-11-30 16:26:30 EST (#)
Rating: 0

(Rating: 2 on 2 reviews, last by bart 3 years ago)

Three Goddamn years!

Submitted by Random Joe at 2003-08-26 18:52:55 EDT (#)
Rating: -2

... ahhh, fucking shit up since 1735....

Submitted by bart at 2000-03-23 04:02:08 EST (#)
Rating: 2

Good even though I can't stand the bastard

I bet Einstein turned himself all sorts of colors before he invented the

-- Homer Simpson
Bart the Genius